The Long View on Epidemics, Disease and Public Health: Research from Economic History Part B*

This piece is the result of a collaboration between the Economic History Review, the Journal of Economic History, Explorations in Economic History and the European Review of Economic History. More details and special thanks below. Part A is available at this link 

Bubonic plague cases are on the rise in the US. Yes, really. - Vox
Man and women with the bubonic plague with its characteristic buboes on their bodies — a medieval painting from 1411.
 Everett Historical/Shutterstock

As the world grapples with a pandemic, informed views based on facts and evidence have become all the more important. Economic history is a uniquely well-suited discipline to provide insights into the costs and consequences of rare events, such as pandemics, as it combines the tools of an economist with the long perspective and attention to context of historians. The editors of the main journals in economic history have thus gathered a selection of the recently-published articles on epidemics, disease and public health, generously made available by publishers to the public, free of access, so that we may continue to learn from the decisions of humans and policy makers confronting earlier episodes of widespread disease and pandemics.

Generations of economic historians have studied disease and its impact on societies across history. However, as the discipline has continued to evolve with improvements in both data and methods, researchers have uncovered new evidence about episodes from the distant past, such as the Black Death, as well as more recent global pandemics, such as the Spanish Influenza of 1918. In this second instalment of The Long View on Epidemics, Disease and Public Health: Research from Economic History, the editors present a review of two major themes that have featured in the analysis of disease. The first  includes articles that discuss the economic impacts of historical epidemics and the official responses they prompted.  The second  turns to the more optimistic story of the impact of public health regulation and interventions, and the benefits thereby generated.

 

S T R A V A G A N Z A: ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF PLAGUE IN EUROPE
Pieter Bruegel the Elder, The Triumph of Death (1562 ca.)

Epidemics and the Economy

 The ways in which societies  and economies are affected by repeated epidemics is a question that historians have struggled to understand. Paolo Malanima provides a detailed analysis of how Renaissance Italy was shaped by the impact of plague: ‘Italy in the Renaissance: A Leading Economy in the European Context, 1350–1550’. Economic History Review 71, no. 1 (2018): 3-30. The consequences of plague for Italy are explored in even more detail by Guido Alfani who demonstrates that the peninsula struggled to recover after experiencing pervasive mortality during the seventeenth century: ‘Plague in Seventeenth-century Europe and the Decline of Italy: An Epidemiological Hypothesis’. European Review of Economic History 17, no. 4 (2013): 408-30.  Epidemics cause multiple changes to the economic environment which necessitates a multifaceted response by government.  Samuel Cohn examines the  oppressive nature of these  reactions in his luminous study of the way European governments sought to prevent workers benefiting from the increased demand for their labour following the Black Death: ‘After the Black Death: Labour Legislation and Attitudes Towards Labour in Late-Medieval Western Europe’. The Economic History Review, 60, no. 3 (2007): 457-85.  

 

The Black Death Actually Improved Public Health | Smart News ...
Josse Lieferinxe, Saint Sebastian Interceding for the Plague Stricken (1497 ca)

 

Public Health

Richard Easterlin’s  panoramic overview of mortality  shows that government policy was critical  in reducing levels of mortality from the early nineteenth century. Economic growth by itself did not lift life expectancy. This major  paper illuminates the essential contribution of public intervention to health in modern societies:  “How Beneficent Is the Market? A Look at the Modern History of Mortality.” European Review of Economic History 3, no. 3 (1999): 257-94. .  Does strict health regulation save lives?  Alan Olmstead and Paul Rhode respond to this question in the affirmative by explaining how the US federal government succeeded in lowering the spread of tuberculosis by establishing controls on cattle in the early part of the twentieth century. Their analysis has considerable contemporary relevance:  only robust and universal controls saved lives: ‘The ‘Tuberculous Cattle Trust’: Disease Contagion in an Era of Regulatory Uncertainty’.  The Journal of Economic History 64, no. 4 (2004): 929–63.

Human society has achieved enormous gains in life expectancy over the last two centuries. Part of the explanation for this improvement  was improvements in key infrastructure.  However, as Daniel Gallardo‐Albarrán demonstrates, this was not simply a  question of ‘dig and save lives’, because  it was the combination  of types of structure  — water and sewers – that mattered: ‘Sanitary infrastructures and the decline of mortality in Germany, 1877–1913’, The Economic History Review (2020). One of the big goals of economic historians has been to measure the multiple benefits of public health interventions. Brian Beach,  Joseph Ferrie, Martin Saavedra, and Werner Troesken,  provide a  brilliant example of how novel statistical techniques  allow us to determine the gains from one such intervention – water purification. They demonstrate that the long-term impacts of reducing levels of disease by improving water quality were large when measured in education and income, and not just lives saved: ‘Typhoid Fever, Water Quality, and Human Capital Formation’.  The Journal of Economic History 76, no. 1 (2016): 41–75. What was it that allowed European societies to largely defeat tuberculosis (TB) in the second half of the twentieth century? In an ambitious  paper, Sue Bowden, João Tovar Jalles, Álvaro Santos Pereira, and Alex Sadler, show that a mix of factors explains the decline in TB: nutrition, living conditions, and the supply of healthcare: ‘Respiratory Tuberculosis and Standards of Living in Postwar Europe’.  European Review of Economic History 18, no. 1 (2014): 57-81.

What We Can Learn (and Should Unlearn) From Albert Camus's The ...
Thomas Rowlandson, The English Dance of Death (1815 ca)

This article was compiled by: 

 

If you wish to read further, other papers on this topic are available on the journal websites:

 

*  Special thanks to Leigh Shaw-Taylor, Cambridge University Press, Elsevier, Oxford University Press, and Wiley for their advice and support.

The Long View on Epidemics, Disease and Public Health: Research from Economic History, Part A

This piece is the result of a collaboration between the Economic History Review, the Journal of Economic History, Explorations in Economic History and the European Review of Economic History. More details and special thanks below.

 

Blackdeath,_tourmai
Exhibit depicting a miniature from a 14th century Belgium manuscript at the Diaspora Museum, Tel Aviv. Available at Wikimedia Commons.

As the world grapples with a pandemic, informed views based on facts and evidence have become all the more important. Economic history is a uniquely well-suited discipline to provide insights into the costs and consequences of rare events, such as pandemics, as it combines the tools of an economist with the long perspective and attention to context of historians. The editors of the main journals in economic history have thus gathered a selection of the recently-published articles on epidemics, disease and public health, generously made available by publishers to the public, free of access, so that we may continue to learn from the decisions of humans and policy makers confronting earlier episodes of widespread disease and pandemics.

Emergency_hospital_during_Influenza_epidemic,_Camp_Funston,_Kansas_-_NCP_1603
Emergency hospital during influenza epidemic, Camp Funston, Kansas. Available at Wikimedia Commons.

Generations of economic historians have studied disease and its impact on societies across history. However, as the discipline has continued to evolve with improvements in both data and methods, researchers have uncovered new evidence about episodes from the distant past, such as the Black Death, as well as more recent global pandemics, such as the Spanish Influenza of 1918. We begin with a recent overview of scholarship on the history of premodern epidemics, and group the remaining articles thematically, into two short reading lists. The first consists of research exploring the impact of diseases in the most direct sense: the patterns of mortality they produce. The second group of articles explores the longer-term consequences of diseases for people’s health later in life.

L0025221 Plague doctor
Plague doctor. Available at Wellcome Collection.

 

L0001879 Two men discovering a dead woman in the street during the gr
Two men discovering a dead woman in the street during the Great Plague of London, 1665. Available at Wellcome Collection.

 

Patterns of Mortality

Emblems_of_mortality_-_representing,_in_upwards_of_fifty_cuts,_Death_seizing_all_ranks_and_degrees_of_people_-_imitated_from_a_painting_in_the_cemetery_of_the_Dominican_church_at_Basil
Emblems of mortality: death seizing all ranks and degrees of people, 1789. Available at Wikimedia Commons.

The rich and complex body of historical work on epidemics is carefully surveyed by Guido Alfani and Tommy Murphy who provide an excellent  guide to the economic, social, and  demographic impact of plagues in human history: ‘Plague and Lethal Epidemics in the Pre-Industrial World’.  The Journal of Economic History 77, no. 1 (2017): 314–43. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050717000092.  The impact of epidemics varies over time and few studies have shown this so clearly as the penetrating article by Neil Cummins, Morgan Kelly and Cormac  Ó Gráda, who provide a finely-detailed map of how the plague evolved  in 16th and 17th century London to reveal who was most heavily burdened by this contagion.  ‘Living Standards and Plague in London, 1560–1665’. Economic History Review 69, no. 1 (2016): 3-34. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12098 .  Plagues shaped the history of nations  and, indeed, global history, but we must not assume that the impact of  plagues was as devastating as we might assume: in a classic piece of historical detective work, Ann  Carlos and Frank Lewis show that mortality among native Americans in the Hudson Bay area  was much lower than historians had suggested: ‘Smallpox and Native American Mortality: The 1780s Epidemic in the Hudson Bay Region’.  Explorations in Economic History 49, no. 3 (2012): 277-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2012.04.003

The effects of disease reflect a complex interaction of individual and social factors.  A paper by Karen Clay, Joshua Lewis and Edson Severnini  explains  how the combination of air pollution and influenza was particularly deadly in the 1918 epidemic, and that  cities in the US which were heavy users of coal had all-age mortality  rates that were approximately  10 per cent higher than  those with lower rates of coal use:  ‘Pollution, Infectious Disease, and Mortality: Evidence from the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic’.  The Journal of Economic History 78, no. 4 (2018): 1179–1209. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002205071800058X.  A remarkable analysis of how one of the great killers, smallpox, evolved during the 18th century, is provided by Romola Davenport, Leonard Schwarz and Jeremy Boulton, who concluded that it was a change in the transmissibility of the disease itself that mattered most for its impact: “The Decline of Adult Smallpox in Eighteenth‐century London.” Economic History Review 64, no. 4 (2011): 1289-314. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0289.2011.00599.x   The question of which sections of society experienced the heaviest burden of sickness during outbreaks of disease outbreaks has long troubled historians and epidemiologists. Outsiders and immigrants have often been blamed for disease outbreaks. Jonathan Pritchett and Insan Tunali show that poverty and immunisation, not immigration, explain who was infected during the Yellow Fever epidemic in 1853 New Orleans: ‘Strangers’ Disease: Determinants of Yellow Fever Mortality during the New Orleans Epidemic of 1853’. Explorations in Economic History 32, no. 4 (1995): 517. https://doi.org/10.1006/exeh.1995.1022

 

The Long Run Consequences of Disease

Nuremberg_chronicles_-_Dance_of_Death_(CCLXIIIIv)
‘Dance of Death’. Illustrations from the Nuremberg Chronicle, by Hartmann Schedel (1440-1514). Available at Wikipedia.

The way epidemics affects families is complex. John Parman wrestles wit h one of the most difficult issues – how parents respond to the harms caused by exposure to an epidemic. Parman  shows that parents chose to concentrate resources on the children who were not affected by exposure to influenza in 1918, which reinforced the differences between their children: ‘Childhood Health and Sibling Outcomes: Nurture Reinforcing Nature during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic’, Explorations in Economic History 58 (2015): 22-43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2015.07.002.  Martin Saavedra addresses a related question: how did exposure to disease in early childhood affect life in the long run? Using late 19th century census data from the US, Saavedra  shows that children of immigrants who were exposed to yellow fever in the womb or early infancy, did less well in later life than their peers,  because they were only able to secure lower-paid  employment: ‘Early-life Disease Exposure and Occupational Status: The Impact of Yellow Fever during the 19th Century’.  Explorations in Economic History 64, no. C (2017): 62-81.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2017.01.003.  One of the great advantages of historical research is its  ability to reveal how the experiences of disease over a lifetime generates cumulative harms. Javier Birchenall’s extraordinary paper shows how soldiers’ exposure to disease during the American Civil War increased the probability  they would  contract tuberculosis later in life: ‘Airborne Diseases: Tuberculosis in the Union Army’. Explorations in Economic History 48, no. 2 (2011): 325-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2011.01.004

 

V0010604 A street during the plague in London with a death cart and m
“Bring Out Your Dead” A street during the Great Plague in London, 1665. Available at Wellcome Collection.

 

Patrick Wallis, Giovanni Federico & John Turner, for the Economic History Review;

Dan Bogart, Karen Clay, William Collins, for the Journal of Economic History;

Kris James Mitchener, Carola Frydman, and Marianne Wanamaker, for Explorations in Economic History;

Joan Roses, Kerstin Enflo, Christopher Meissner, for the European Review of Economic History.

 

If you wish to read further, other papers on this topic are available on the journal websites:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1111/(ISSN)1468-0289.epidemics-disease-mortality

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/free-articles-on-pandemics

https://www.journals.elsevier.com/explorations-in-economic-history/featured-articles/contagious-disease-on-economics

 

* Thanks to Leigh Shaw-Taylor, Cambridge University Press, Elsevier, Oxford University Press, and Wiley, for their advice and support.

Book Review – ‘Money and Markets: Essays in Honour of Martin Daunton’

review by Duncan Needham (University of Cambridge)

book edited by Julian Hoppit, Duncan Needham & Adrian Leonard

‘Money and Markets: Essays in Honour of Martin Daunton’ is published by Boydell and Brewer. SAVE  35% when you order direct from the publisher – offer ends on the 23rd April 2020. See below for details.

 

Daunton 1

Money and Markets was commissioned by Boydell and Brewer following a conference to celebrate the distinguished career of Cambridge historian Martin Daunton.  The volume follows the themes of that conference, bringing together essays from former colleagues and students that reflect Martin’s broad-ranging interests in the economic, social and cultural history of the United Kingdom and beyond.  As one of those colleagues Frank Trentmann points out, students could be forgiven for thinking there are four Martin Dauntons:

There is the Daunton of urban history and housing, then Daunton the author of books on state and taxation, and a third, younger Daunton, who writes about Britain and globalisation. Finally, there is the academic governor Daunton, Master of Trinity Hall, Cambridge, President of the Royal Historical Society, and chair of numerous boards and committees.

 

Martin Daunton was the sixth holder of the Cambridge chair in Economic History.  The first, Sir John Clapham, tasked economic historians with filling the ‘empty boxes’ of theory with historical facts.  This task was taken up with enthusiasm by his successor, Michael Postan, who insisted that theory, essential for establishing historical causation, be firmly grounded in social and institutional settings.  Martin has taken a similar approach throughout his career by focusing on the relationship between structure and agency, how institutional structures create capacities and path dependencies, and how institutions are themselves shaped by agency and contingency – what Fernand Braudel referred to as ‘turning the hour glass twice’.

The introduction to Money and Markets provides biographical detail to illustrate how Martin’s research has been influenced by the places in which he has lived – from growing up in South Wales, to university at Nottingham and Kent, then teaching at Durham, London and finally Cambridge.  The chapters then follow Trentmann’s taxonomy with new research on the financing of the British fiscal-military state before and during the Napoleonic wars, its property institutions, and the longer-term economic consequences of Sir Robert Peel.  There are also chapters on the birth of the Eurodollar market, Conservative fiscal policy from the 1960s to the 1980s, the impact of neoliberalism on welfare policy (and more broadly), the failed attempt to build an airport in the Thames Estuary in the 1970s, and the political economy of time in Britain since 1945.  While much of the focus is on Britain, and British finance in a global economy, the volume also reflects Daunton’s more recent work on international political economy with essays on the French contribution to nineteenth-century globalization, Prussian state finances at the time of the 1848 revolution, Imperial German monetary policy, the role of international charity in the mixed economy of welfare and neoliberal governance, and the material politics of energy consumption from the 1930s to the 1960s.

 

 

SAVE 35% when you order direct from the publisher using the offer code BB135 online here. Offer ends 23rd April 2020. Discount applies to print and eBook editions. Alternatively call Boydell’s distributor, Wiley, on 01243 843 291 and quote the same code. Offer ends one month after the date of upload. Any queries please email marketing@boydell.co.uk

The Origins of Political and Property Rights in Bronze Age Mesopotamia

by Giacomo Benati, Carmine Guerriero, Federico Zaina (University of Bologna)

The full paper from this blog is available here

unnamed (1)
Mesopotamian map of canals. Available at <http://factsanddetails.com/world/cat56/sub363/item1513.html&gt;

Despite the overwhelming empirical evidence documenting the relevance of inclusive political institutions and strong property rights, we still lack a unified framework identifying their determinants and their interaction. We develop a model to address this deficiency, and we test its implications on a novel data on Greater Mesopotamia during the Bronze Ages.

This region developed the first recorded forms of stable state institutions, which can be credibly linked to geography. Worsening  climatic conditions between the end of the Uruk period (3300-3100 BC) and the beginning of the Jemdet Nasr and Early Dynastic periods (3100-2550 BC) reduced farming returns and  forced the religious elites to share power previously acquired from the landholding households, with rising military elites. This transformation led to the peasants engaging in leasing, renting and tenure-for-service contracts requiring rents and corvèe, such as participation in infrastructure projects and a conscripted army. Being an empowerment mechanism, the latter was the citizens’ preferred public good. Second, the Pre-Sargonic period (2550-2350 BC) witnessed a milder climate, which curbed the temple and palatial elites’ need to share their policy-making power. Finally, a period of harsher climate, and the consequent rise of long-distance trade as an alternative activity, allowed the town elites to establish themselves as the third decision-maker during the Mesopotamian empires period (2350-1750 BC). Reforms towards more inclusive political institutions were accompanied by a shift towards stronger farmers’ rights on land and a larger provision of public goods, especially those most valued by the citizens, i.e., conscripted army.

To elucidate the incentives behind these stylized facts, we consider the interaction between a land-owning elite and citizens able to deliver a valuable harvest if the imperfectly observable farming conditions were favorable. To incentivize investment, the elite cannot commit to direct transfers, but can lean on two other instruments: establishing a more inclusive political process, which allows citizens to select tax rates and organize public good provision, and/or punishing citizens for suspected shirking by restricting their private rights.  This ‘stick’ is costly for the elite. When the expected harvest value is barely greater than the investment cost, citizens cooperate only under full property rights and more inclusive political institutions, allowing them to fully tax the output. When the investment return is intermediate, the elite keeps control over fiscal policies and can implement partial taxation. When, finally, the investment return is large, the elite can also weaken the protection of private rights. Yet, embracing the stick is optimal only if production is sufficiently transparent, and, thus, punishment effectively disciplines a shirking citizen. Our model has three implications. First, the inclusiveness of political institutions declines with expected farming returns and is unrelated to the opaqueness of farming. Second, the strength of property rights diminishes with the expected harvest return and is positively related to the opaqueness of farming. Finally, citizens’ expected utility from public good provision increases with the strength of political and property rights.

To evaluate these predictions, we study 44 major Mesopotamian polities observed between 3050 and 1750 BC. To proxy the expected farming return, we combine information on the growing season temperature, averaged—as any other non-institutional variable—over the previous half-century and land suitability for wheat, barley and olive breeding (Figure 1). This measure is strongly correlated with contemporaneous barley yields in l/ha. Turning to the opaqueness in the farming process, we consider the exogenous spread of viticulture through inter-palatial trade. Because of its diplomatic and ritual roles, wine represented one of the exports most valued by the ruling elites. Regarding common interest goods, we gather information on the number of public and ritual buildings and the existence of a conscripted army. To measure the strength of political and property rights, we construct a five-point score rising with the division of decision-making power and a six-point index increasing when land exploitation by the elite was indirect rather than direct and/or farmers’ rights were enforced de jure rather than de facto. These two variables build on the events in a 40-year window around each time period.

Conditional on polity and half-century fixed effects, our OLS estimates imply that the strength of political and property rights is significantly and inversely related to the expected farming return, whereas only the protection of private property is significantly and positively driven by the opaqueness of farming. Finally, public good provision is unrelated to property rights protection but significantly and positively linked to the inclusiveness of the political process, and more so when the public good was the setup of a conscripted army.

These results open three crucial avenues for further research. First, did reforms towards stronger political and property rights foster, thanks to the larger provision of public goods, economic development (Guerriero and Righi, 2019)? Second, did the most politically developed polities obstruct the market integration of the Mesopotamia empires, pushing the rulers to impose a complex bureaucracy on all of them and extractive policies on the less militarily relevant ones (de Oliveira and Guerriero, 2018; Guerriero, 2019a)? Finally, did reforms towards a more inclusive political process foster the centralization of the legal order, i.e., reforms towards statutory law, bright-line procedural rules and a strong protection of the potential buyers’ reliance on their contracts (Guerriero 2016; 2019b)?

Picture 1
Figure 1: Political and Property Rights, Public Good Provision and Farming Return.        Source: as per published paper

 

References

de Oliveira, Guilherme, and Carmine Guerriero. 2018. “Extractive States: The Case of the Italian Unification.” International Review of Law and Economics, 56: 142-159.

Guerriero, Carmine. 2016. “Endogenous Legal Traditions.” International Review of Law and Economics, 46: 49-69.

Guerriero, Carmine. 2019a. “Endogenous Institutions and Economic Outcomes.” Forthcoming, Economica.

Guerriero, Carmine. 2019b. “Property Rights, Transaction Costs, and the Limits of the Market.” Unpublished.

Guerriero, Carmine, and Laura Righi. 2019. “The Origins of the State’s Fiscal Capacity: Culture, Democracy, and Warfare.” Unpublished.

North, Douglass C., and Barry R. Weingast. 1989. “Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England.” Journal of Economic History, 49: 803-832.

 

To contact the authors

Giacomo Benati (giacomo.benati2@unibo.it)

Carmine Guerriero (c.guerriero@unibo.it)

Federico Zaina (Federico.zaina@unibo.it)

Historical Resource Analysis Sheds Light on the Sustainability of Our Future

by Kai Whiting (University of Lisbon) and Edward Simpson (Abertay University)

This blog is derived from: Whiting, K., Carmona, L.G., Brand-Correa, L., & Simpson, E. ‘Illumination as a material service: A comparison between Ancient Rome and early 19th century London’, Ecological Economics, 169 (2020), available here 

 

The way in which we conduct socioeconomic activity is often to the detriment of healthy planetary processes and human and wildlife communities.  Many believe that innovative technologies will help us overcome most, if not all,  environmental challenges. Techno-optimists argue that new technologies will enable us to become more resource efficient, which can be broadly defined as the ability to support increasing levels of socioeconomic activity with less energy and material inputs. However, our artificial lighting case study into the fuels, lighting devices and the associated infrastructure that offered Ancient Romans and Georgian Londoners the opportunity to participate in diverse activities during the hours of darkness (or inside a dark room) questions the validity of that argument.

We modelled artificial lighting levels (in lumens-hours) for the average urban Roman and Georgian Londoner using a stock-driven approach. The latter requires information on the type of materials used in a lighting device (e.g. an oil lamp or gas-fed lamppost), the cumulative weight of all its components, the volume of the fuel that the device uses (either olive oil, tallow or coal gas), the amount of hours that the average device was used for, and the number of devices in circulation. It also required data pertaining to energy and material production, which involved research into the construction of gas retort houses, gas pipes and pottery kilns, amongst others. We obtained these records via the archaeological findings of Pompeii and Herculaneum, utility service contracts, legal proceedings, engineering manuals, sales catalogues, and building blueprints.  We made sociodemographic assumptions and extrapolated information from other representative cities when data was incomplete or absent.

Using this model, we estimated that the average Ancient Roman experienced approximately 41,000 lumen-hours/capita/year, which was around 6000 lumen-hours/capita/year, or 17 percent, more lighting than their Georgian counterpart. In fact, it was not until around 1850 that Roman lighting levels were superseded. Our explanation for this observation focuses on societal values and preferences. The Georgians had both a candle tax and a window tax, which we believe is indicative of their relative indifference to lighting level provision (artificial or natural).[1]  Roman Law, on the other hand, prohibited the construction of fences that would excessively inhibit the passing of sunlight into a neighbour’s dwelling. This suggests that societal values, more so than the way in which we physically provided lighting, was the determinative factor in a citizen’s access to illumination and lived experience of lighting levels.

Figures 1a and 1b are to scale graphical representations (Sankey diagrams) of the fuels, metals and non-metals used to provide artificial lighting in households, commercial and cultural spaces. For the Romans, our baseline year was 79 AD, while for the Georgians it was an average year in the 1820s. From Figure 1a, we note that the Romans relied heavily on fuels (particularly olive oil) to provide lighting.  This meant that the amount of fuel (as depicted by the proportional thickness of the lines) required to produce a lumen-hour was relatively high. In other words, they used fuels in a rather inefficient manner. However, when we consider the amount of lighting devices and the infrastructure that supported their production and use (as demonstrated by the size of the blocks), the Romans were more efficient. As Figure 1b shows, it seems that the opposite was true for Georgian society: it required less fuel but considerably more lighting devices and supporting infrastructure to provide artificial lighting.

In comparative terms, 1820s London was four times more fuel-efficient than urban Ancient Rome. However, there was a trade-off given that the Georgians were 53 times less efficient than the Romans when we consider the amount of material required to produce and maintain lighting devices and infrastructure.

Picture 1
Figure 1. Schematic representation of Stocks, flows and service for illumination – annual per capita. 1a (top): Ancient Rome. 1b (bottom): Georgian London.

Our results highlight the problem of overemphasising fuel efficiency at the cost of the different material types and substantial quantities required to produce, run and maintain lighting devices and their associated infrastructure. This has implications for current  environmental policy, for example, the promotion of LED lights, which are viewed as ‘clean’ technologies because of their lower energy consumption. However, this view does not account for the additional chemical elements that constitute LEDs[4]. Every extra material requires a different type of mine and mining is far from environmental. Our results also challenge the techno-optimist assumption that we can solve almost all socio-environmental ills simply by incentivising technological innovation. Surely, as the Roman and Georgian lighting regulations show, we should focus on the underlying personal and societal values and preferences that determine the way in which we use resources and provide societal services to begin with.

 

References

Window Tax https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/towncountry/towns/tyne-and-wear-case-study/about-the-group/housing/window-tax/

McCulloch, John R. 1845. A Dictionary, Practical, Theoretical, and Historical of Commerce and Commercial Navigation. Vol. 1.

Thomas Wardle, Bronin, Sara C. ‘Solar rights’,  Boston University Law Review, 89, https://www.bu.edu/law/journals-archive/bulr/documents/bronin.pdf

Carmona, L. G., Whiting, K., Carrasco, A., Sousa, T., & Domingos, T. (2017). Material services with both eyes wide open. Sustainability, 9(9), 1508.

 

To contact the authors: 

Kai Whiting (kaiwhiting@tecnico.ulisboa.pt),  @kaiwhiting

Edward Simpson (e.simpson@abertay.ac.uk)

 

 

[1] Window Tax https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/towncountry/towns/tyne-and-wear-case-study/about-the-group/housing/window-tax/ ; McCulloch, A Dictionary, Practical, Theoretical, and Historical of Commerce and Commercial Navigation;  Bronin, ‘Solar rights’, p.1257; https://www.bu.edu/law/journals-archive/bulr/documents/bronin.pdf; Carmona, Whiting, Carrasco, Sousa, and  Domingos,  ‘Material services’, p. 1508.

 

Integration in European coal markets, 1833-1913

by John E. Murray (Rhodes College) and Javier Silvestre (University of Zaragoza, Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón, and Grupo de Estudios ‘Población y Sociedad’)

The full article from this blog was published on The Economic History Review and it is available here

 

The availability of coal is central to debates about the causes of the Industrial Revolution and modern economic growth in Europe.  To overcome regional limitations in supply,  it has been argued that coal could have been transported. However, despite references to the import option and transport costs, the evolution of coal markets in nineteenth-century Europe has received limited attention.  Interest in the extent of markets is motivated  by their effects on economic growth and welfare ( Federico 2019;  Lampe and Sharp 2019).

The literature on market integration in nineteenth-century Europe mostly refers to grain prices, usually wheat. Our paper extends the research to coal, a key commodity. The historical literature of coal market integration is scant—in contrast to the literature for more recent times (Wårell 2006; Li et al. 2010; Papież and Śmiech 2015). Previous historical studies usually report some price differences between- and within countries, while a  few provide statistical analyses, often  applied to a narrow geographical scope.

We examine intra- and international market integration in the principal coal producing countries, Britain, Germany, France and Belgium.  Our analysis includes three, largely  non-producing, Southern European countries, Italy, Spain and Portugal—for which necessary data are available. (Other countries were considered but ultimately not included). We have created a database of (annual) European coal prices at different spatial levels.

Based on our price data,  we consider prices in the main consumer cities and producing regions and estimate specific price differentials between areas in which the coal trade was well established. As a robustness check, we estimate trends in the coefficient of variation for a large number of markets. For the international market, we estimate price differentials between proven trading markets. Given available data,  focus on Europe’ main exporter, Britain, and the main import countries –  France, Germany, and Southern Europe. To confirm findings, we estimate the coefficient of variation of prices throughout coal producing Europe.

Picture 1
Figure 1. Coalmine in the Borinage, 1879, by Vincent van Gogh.Available at <https://www.theparisreview.org/blog/2015/12/31/idle-bird-2/&gt;

To estimate market integration within coal producing countries, we utilise Federico’s (2012) proposal for testing both price convergence and efficiency—the latter referring to a quick return to equilibrium after a shock. For the international market, we again estimate convergence equations. For selected international routes, and according to the available information, we complete the analysis with an econometric model on the determinants of integration—which includes the ‘second wave’ of research in market integration (Federico 2019). Finally, to verify our findings, we apply a variance analysis to prices for the producing countries.
Our results, based on quantitative and qualitative evidence, may be summarized as follows. First, within coal-producing countries, we find evidence of price convergence. Second, markets became more ‘efficient’ over time – suggesting reductions in information costs. Nevertheless, coal prices were subject to strong fluctuations and shocks, in relation to ‘coal famines’. Compared to agricultural produce, the process of integration in coal appears to have taken longer. However, price convergence in coal tended to stabilize at the end of our period, suggesting insignificant further reduction in transports costs and the existence of product heterogeneity. Finally, our evidence indicates that cartelization in Continental Europe from the late nineteenth century had limited impact on price convergence.

Turning to the international coal market, our econometric results confirm price convergence between Britain and importing countries. Like domestic markets, the speed with which price differentials between Britain and Continental Europe were eroded declined from the 1900s. Further, market integration between Britain and Continental Europe appears to have been largely influenced by changes in transportation costs, information costs and protectionism. Extending our analysis to other countries, (with, admittedly, limited data) suggests that price convergence started later in our period. Finally, our results indicate the limited ability of cartels to restrict competition beyond their most immediate area of influence.
Overall, we observe integration in both the domestic and international coal market. Future research might consider expanding the focus to other cross-country, Continental, markets to acquire a deeper comprehension of the causes and effects of market integration.

To contact the authors:

Javier Silvestre, javisil@unizar.es

References

Federico, G., ‘How much do we know about market integration in Europe?’, Economic History Review, 65 (2012), pp. 470-97.

Federico, G., ‘Market integration’, in C. Diebolt, and M. Haupert, editors, Handbook of Cliometrics (Berlin, 2019).

Lampe, M. and Sharp, P., ‘Cliometric approaches to international trade’, in C. Diebolt, and M. Haupert, editors, Handbook of Cliometrics (Berlin, 2019).

Li, R., Joyeux, R., and Ripple, R. D., ‘International steam coal market integration’, The Energy Journal 31 (2010), pp. 181-202.

Papież, M. and Śmiech, S., ‘Dynamic steam coal market integration: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis’, Energy Economics 51 (2015), pp. 510-20.

Wårell, L., ‘Market integration in the international coal industry: A cointegration approach’, The Energy Journal 27 (2006), pp. 99-118.

Uncertainty and the Great Slump

by Jason Lennard (London School of Economics and Lund University)

This article has now been published in the Economic History Review and is available on Early View

Holland House library after an air raid
Holland House library after an air raid, 1940. Available at Wikimedia Commons.

A key challenge in economic history is to understand the macroeconomics of interwar Britain. This was a time of high unemployment, depressed economic activity and significant macroeconomic volatility. Economic historians have identified a number of causes, from the demise of the old staple industries to the shortening of the working week (Richardson, 1965; Broadberry, 1986).

Yet the historiography has not explored an important source of modern economic fluctuations: uncertainty (Bloom, 2009; Jurado et al., 2015; Baker et al., 2016). A fog of uncertainty may well have hung over Britain between the wars given the volume of extraordinary events. Economically, there was the return to and break from the gold standard, the fiscal aftermath of the First World War and the slide to protection. Politically, there were snap general elections in 1923 and 1931, hung parliaments following the elections of 1923 and 1929 and national governments during the 1930s.

In new research (Lennard, forthcoming EcHR), I investigated how economic policy uncertainty affected the British economy in the interwar period. As a nebulous concept, the first step was to measure uncertainty. In order to do so, I constructed an index based on the frequency of articles reporting uncertainty over economic policy in the Daily Mail, Guardian and The Times (Figure 1).

Figure 1. New economic policy uncertainty index for the United Kingdom, 1920-38 (average 1920-38 = 100)

Lennard 1
Source: as per original article.

The new index is plotted in Figure 1, which shows that there was significant variation in uncertainty in the United Kingdom between 1920 and 1938. Uncertainty spiked around recurring events in the calendar such as budget announcements and general elections but also in response to more specific factors such as the General Strike, looming inter-allied debt payments and changes in the likelihood of war.

The second step was to account for the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty. Using a vector autoregression, I found that uncertainty was associated with reduced credit (a ‘financial frictions effect’), fewer imports (a ‘magnification effect’), lost jobs, and lower economic activity. Overall, economic policy uncertainty accounted for more than 20 per cent of macroeconomic volatility.

A wealth of narrative evidence backs up the significance of uncertainty shocks. At the microeconomic level, there were regular reports of disruption to a number of industries from pianos to textiles. In the car industry, for example, Sir William Letts, chairman and managing director of Willys Overland Crossley, told shareholders at the annual general meeting that uncertainty is,  ‘crippling business and holding back activity and energy in our great industry’ (Guardian, 25 Feb. 1930, p. 6).

At the macroeconomic level, there were frequent descriptions of depressed employment and output. In 1920, for example, the Daily Mail (30 Dec. 1920, p. 4) reported that, ‘among the main causes of unemployment at the present moment […] is uncertainty in the business world’. In 1930 Sir William Morris wrote that Britain was ‘floundering in a sea of uncertainty […] the result being colossal unemployment’ (Daily Mail, 29 Aug. 1930, p. 8). In 1932 the Economist (30 Jan. 1932, p. 1) summarised that ‘business this year has been overshadowed by the economic and political uncertainty at home and abroad’.

In summary, uncertainty has been a forgotten, albeit incomplete, explanation for macroeconomic instability in interwar Britain. How uncertainty affected economies in other historical contexts is an important and open question for future research.

To contact the author:

Email: jason.lennard@ekh.lu.se

Twitter: @jason_lennard

References

Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., and Davis, S. J., ‘Measuring economic policy uncertainty’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131 (2016), pp. 1593–636.

Bloom, N., ‘The impact of uncertainty shocks’, Econometrica, 77 (2009), pp. 623–85.

Broadberry, S., The British economy between the wars: a macroeconomic survey (Oxford, 1986).

Jurado, K., Ludvigson, S. C., and Ng, S., ‘Measuring uncertainty’, American Economic Review, 105 (2015), pp. 1177–216.

Lennard, J., ‘Uncertainty and the Great Slump’, Economic History Review, (forthcoming).

Richardson, H. W., ‘Over-commitment in Britain before 1930’, Oxford Economic Papers, 17 (1965), pp. 237–62.

Early View: Slavery and Anglo-American capitalism revisited

by Gavin Wright (Stanford University)

The full paper for this research has now been published on The Economic History Review and is available on early view here 

 

Slaves_cutting_the_sugar_cane_-_Ten_Views_in_the_Island_of_Antigua_(1823),_plate_IV_-_BL
Slaves cutting sugar cane, taken from ‘Ten Views in the Island of Antigua’ by William Clark. Available at Wikimedia Commons.

For decades, scholars have debated the role of slavery in the rise of industrial capitalism, from the British Industrial Revolution of the eighteenth century to the acceleration of the American economy in the nineteenth century.

Most recent studies find an important element of truth in the thesis associated with Eric Williams that links the slave trade and slave-based commerce with early British industrial development. Long-distance markets were crucial supports for technological progress and for the infrastructure of financial markets and the shipping sector.

But the eighteenth century Atlantic economy was dominated by sugar, and sugar was dominated by slavery. The role of the slave trade was central to the process, because it would have been all but impossible to attract a free labour force to the brutal and deadly conditions that prevailed in sugar cultivation. As the mercantilist, Sir James Steuart asked in 1767: ‘Could the sugar islands be cultivated to any advantage by hired labour?’

Adherents of an insurgency known as the New History of Capitalism have extended this line of analysis to nineteenth century America, maintaining that: ‘During the eighty years between the American Revolution and the Civil War, slavery was indispensable to the economic development of the United States.’ A crucial linkage in this perspective is between slave-grown cotton and the cotton textile industries of both Britain and the United States, as asserted by Marx: ‘Without slavery you have no cotton; without cotton you have no modern industry.’

My research, to be presented in this year’s Tawney Lecture to the Economic History Society’s annual conference, argues to the contrary, that such analyses overlook the second part of the Williams thesis, which held that industrial capitalism abandoned slavery because it was no longer needed for continued economic expansion. We need not ascribe cynical or self-interested motives to the abolitionists to assert that these forces were able to succeed because the political-economic consensus that supported slavery in the eighteenth century no longer prevailed in the nineteenth.

Between the American Revolution in 1776 and the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815, the demands of industrial capitalism changed in fundamental ways: expansion of new export markets in non-slave areas; streamlined channels for migration of free labour; the shift of the primary raw material from sugar to cotton. Unlike sugar, cotton was not confined to unhealthy locations, did not require large fixed capital investment, and would have spread rapidly through the American South, with or without slavery.

These historic shifts were recognised in the United States as in Britain, as indicated by the post-Revolutionary abolitions in the northern states and territories. To be sure, southern slavery was highly profitable to the owners, and the slave economy experienced considerable growth in the antebellum period. But the southern regional economy seemed increasingly out of step with the US mainstream, its centrality for national prosperity diminishing over time.

Indeed, my study asserts that on balance the persistence of slavery actually reduced the growth of cotton supply compared with a free-labour alternative. The truth of this proposition is most clearly demonstrated by the expansion of production after the Civil War and emancipation, and the return of world cotton prices to their pre-war levels.

Taxation, fiscal capacity and credible commitment in eighteenth-century China: the effects of the formalization and centralization of informal surtaxes

by Max Hao (Peking University) and Kevin Liu (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology).

 

In premodern Europe, famine relief was inadequately provided until the late 19th century.  In contrast, in late imperial China, preventing starvation helped legitimate the state and played a key role in reducing internal conflicts. The Qing state operated a network of granaries and developed sophisticated procedures to report famines and supply relief. However, as shown in Figure 1, the frequency of famine relief recorded in the Qingshilu (veritable records of Qing) was much lower than the frequency of disasters under the reigns of Shunzhi (1644-1661) and Kangxi (1661-1722). In contrast, in the reign of Yongzheng (1723-1735) and in the early years of Qianlong (1736-1760), famine relief became more responsive to disasters. Why did the Qing state take on the responsibility for “nourishing the people” only after 1723?

Picture 0
Figure 1: Province-level frequency of disasters, famine reliefs and tax exemptions, 1645-1722 (Four-year moving average)

To solve this puzzle, we explore the effect of a reform that formalized and centralized part of the fiscal system in premodern China: the ‘huohao turned to public reform instituted in Emperor Yongzheng’s reign (1723-1735).   ‘Huohao’ denotes all the informal surtaxes collected by county governments. Because the bulk of formal tax revenue was remitted directly to the central government, provincial and county governments retained only a limited share of this income with limited discretion over its expenditure.  Consequently,  they imposed huohao or surtaxes to finance their own expenses. However, because these informal revenues were unsanctioned and unmonitored by the central government, they were largely pocketed by officials.

The ‘huohao turned to public’ reform was an endeavor to formalize huohao in order to achieve two interconnected policy goals: to reduce corruption and enhance provincial fiscal capacity by centralizing control. First, huohao was collected at rates designated by the provincial governor and delivered to the provincial treasury. Second, 60% of the remitted funds were allocated to county magistrates and provincial governors as ‘anticorruption salaries’ to finance their regular expenses, reducing their incentive to collect informal surtaxes and seize public revenues. More importantly, 40% of the formalized houhao was assigned as public funds to finance irregular expenses at the governors’ discretion. The total annual revenue from the formalized huohao amounted to 4.5 million taels of silver, of which 1.8 million were reserved as public funds. In sum, by formalizing and centralizing informal surtaxes, the reform enhanced provincial fiscal capacity by giving provincial governors more resources and a greater incentive to spend them on public goods. The design of the reform is illustrated in Figure 2.

 

Picture 1

 

Because corruption is extremely difficult to explore empirically, we mainly focus on whether the second goal was achieved. The timing of when the reform was initiated and completed differed between provinces, but the reasons behind these variations  were largely exogenous to provincial characteristics, enabling us to use them to test the effects of reform. We test whether the huohao reform raised the frequency of famine relief in periods of disastrous weather by exploiting the different timing of the reform process across provinces. We restrict our dataset to 1710-1760, when the bulk of famine relief was financed by the provinces.

Using a prefecture-level panel dataset, we find that in times of extreme drought and floods, the frequency of famine relief increased after the reform by 1.05 times per prefecture, which was more than 100% of the standard deviation of the dependent variable relative to that under non-disastrous weather. By exploring the dynamics of the reform’s impact, we find no pre-trend, which supports the exogeneity of the reform’s timing. Our results are robust to controlling for other initiatives by the central government, such as tax exemptions, the allocation of tribute grain and central fiscal revenues, the enforcement of bureaucratic monitoring, and other concurrent fiscal reforms. We also find that famine relief effectively reduced grain prices when disasters occurred, indicating that public funds were spent on famine relief which had a beneficial impact on the population. Further, we find that the reform’s impact was greater when areas faced exceptional flooding compared to exceptional droughts, and greater in prefectures which had difficulties collecting taxes, suggesting that the reform facilitated the intertemporal and spatial redistribution of financial resources.

For this tax reform to have a sustained effect on provincial government capacity,  central government would need to resist the expropriation of these new revenues for its own use.  However, in premodern China, there were no institutional constraints on this dispossession.  After emperor Qianlong (1736-1796) succeeded to the throne, the central government began to make regular checks on the expenditure of provincial public funds, forced the inter-provincial transfers of funds, and expended them on projects previously financed by central revenues. These actions forced provincial governments to reduce their expenditure on famine relief and withhold anticorruption salaries meant for county administrators. This finding highlights that it was the lack of credible commitment that accounted for the short-lived success of this fiscal reform. Viewed from this perspective, the reform provides a valuable lesson about the role of political institutions in the Great Divergence.

 

To contact the authors:

Max Hao (maxhao1003@pku.edu.cn)

Kevin Liu (kevin.liu@connect.ust.hk)

Tawney Lecture 2019: Slavery and Anglo-American Capitalism Revisited

by Gavin Wright (Stanford University)

This research was presented as the Tawney Lecture at the EHS Annual Conference in 2019.

It will also appear in the Economic History Review later this year.

 

WrightCotton
Coloured lithograph of slaves picking cotton. Fort Sumter Museum Charleston. Available at Flickr.

My Tawney lecture reassessed the relationship between slavery and industrial capitalism in both Britain and the United States.  The thesis expounded by Eric Williams held that slavery and the slave trade were vital for the expansion of British industry and commerce during the 18th century but were no longer needed by the 19th.  My lecture confirmed both parts of the Williams thesis:  the 18th-century Atlantic economy was dominated by sugar, which required slave labor; but after 1815, British manufactured goods found diverse new international markets that did not need captive colonial buyers, naval protection, or slavery.  Long-distance trade became safer and cheaper, as freight rates fell, and international financial infrastructure developed.  Figure 1 (below) shows that the slave economies absorbed the majority of British cotton goods during the 18th century, but lost their centrality during the 19th, supplanted by a diverse array of global destinations.

Figure 1.

Wright1
Source: see article published in the Review.

 

I argued that this formulation applies with equal force to the upstart economy across the Atlantic.  The mainland North American colonies were intimately connected to the larger slave-based imperial economy.  The northern colonies, holding relatively few slaves themselves, were nonetheless beneficiaries of the trading regime,  protected against outsiders by British naval superiority.  Between 1768 and 1772, the British West Indies were the largest single market for commodity exports from New England and the Middle Atlantic, dominating sales of wood products, fish and meat, and accounting for significant shares of whale products, grains and grain products.  The prominence of slave-based commerce explains the arresting connections reported by C. S. Wilder, associating early American universities with slavery.  Thus, part one of the Williams thesis also holds for 18th-century colonial America.

Insurgent scholars known as New Historians of Capitalism argue that slavery, specifically slave-grown cotton, was critical for the rise of the U.S. economy in the 19th century.  In contrast, I argued that although industrial capitalism needed cheap cotton, cheap cotton did not need slavery.  Unlike sugar, cotton required no large investments of fixed capital and could be cultivated efficiently at any scale, in locations that would have been settled by free farmers in the absence of slavery.  Early mainland cotton growers deployed slave labour not because of its productivity or aptness for the new crop, but because they were already slave owners, searching for profitable alternatives to tobacco, indigo, and other declining crops.  Slavery was, in effect, a ‘pre-existing condition’ for the 19th-century American South.

To be sure, U.S. cotton did indeed rise ‘on the backs of slaves’, and no cliometric counterfactual can gainsay this brute fact of history.  But it is doubtful that this brutal system served the long-run interests of textile producers in Lancashire and New England, as many of them recognized at the time.  As argued here, the slave South underperformed as a world cotton supplier, for three distinct though related reasons:  in 1807 the region  closed the African slave trade, yet failed to recruit free migrants, making labour supply inelastic; slave owners neglected transportation infrastructure, leaving large sections of potential cotton land on the margins of commercial agriculture; and because of the fixed-cost character of slavery, even large plantations aimed at self-sufficiency in foodstuffs, limiting the region’s overall degree of market specialization.  The best evidence that slavery was not essential for cotton supply is demonstrated by what happened when slavery ended. After war and emancipation, merchants and railroads flooded into the southeast, enticing previously isolated farm areas into the cotton economy.  Production in plantation areas gradually recovered, but the biggest source of new cotton came from white farmers in the Piedmont.  When the dust settled in the 1880s, India, Egypt, and slave-using Brazil had retreated from world markets, and the price of cotton in Liverpool returned to its antebellum level. See Figure 2.

Figure 2.

Wright2
Source: see article published in the Review.

The New Historians of Capitalism also exaggerate the importance of the slave South for accelerated U.S. growth.  The Cotton Staple Growth hypothesis advanced by Douglass North was decisively refuted by economic historians a generation ago.  The South was not a major market for western foodstuffs and consumed only a small and declining share of northern manufactures.   International and interregional financial connections were undeniably important, but thriving capital markets in northeastern cities clearly predated the rise of cotton, and connections to slavery were remote at best. Investments in western canals and railroads were in fact larger, accentuating the expansion of commerce along East-West lines.

It would be excessive to claim that Anglo-American industrial and financial interests recognized the growing dysfunction of the slave South, and in response fostered or encouraged the antislavery campaigns that culminated in the Civil War.  A more appropriate conclusion is that because of profound changes in technologies and global economic structures, slavery — though still highly profitable to its practitioners — no longer seemed essential for the capitalist economies of the 19th-century world.